A Korean Predictive Model for Postoperative Nausea and Vomiting

Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) is one of the most common and distressing complications after surgery. An identification of risk factors associated with PONV would make it easier to select specific patients for effective antiemetic therapy. We designed a case-controlled study to identify the risk factors for PONV in 5,272 surgical patients. At postoperative 2 and 24 hr, patients were visited and interviewed on the presence and severity of PONV. Thirty nine percent of patients experienced one or more episodes of nausea or vomiting. Five risk factors were highly predictive of PONV: 1) female, 2) history of previous PONV or motion sickness, 3) duration of anesthesia more than 1 hour, 4) non-smoking status, and 5) use of opioid in the form of patient controlled analgesia (PCA), in the order of relevance. The formula to calculate the probability of PONV using the multiple regression analysis was as follows: P (probability of PONV)=1/1+e(-Z), Z=-1.885+0.894 (gender)+0.661 (history)+0.584 (duration of anesthesia)+0.196 (smoking status)+0.186 (use of PCA-based opioid) where gender: female=1, male=0; history of previous PONV or motion sickness: yes=1, no=0; duration of anesthesia:more than 1 hr=1, less than or 1 hr=0; smoking status: no=1, yes=0; use of PCA-based opioid: yes=1, no=0.